Experience vs. Talent: What Really Predicts Entrepreneurial Success?

Let’s Start with the Obvious

Experience matters—a lot. It’s widely acknowledged that experience plays a pivotal role in the success of startup founders. Data indicates that first-time founders have an 18% success rate, while those who have previously failed see a slight increase to 20%. However, entrepreneurs who have already succeeded in one venture boast a 30% success rate in their next.

This trend extends to venture capital funding as well. Repeat founders, especially those with prior successes, tend to attract capital more readily and negotiate more favorable terms compared to novice entrepreneurs. Their track records offer tangible proof of capability, reducing perceived investor risk.

Moreover, the "Are You Experienced or Are You Talented?: When Does Innate Talent versus Experience Explain Entrepreneurial Performance?" study by Stanford and MIT professors (Eesley & Roberts, 2012) confirms that founder experience significantly improves performance, particularly in familiar markets or technologies. Experience doesn’t just impress investors—it sharpens instincts, decision-making, and strategic awareness in real time.

Interestingly, in their research "Predicting New Venture Survival: An Analysis of "Anatomy of a Startup" cases from Inc. Magazine", USC professor Gartner et al. bring a valid counter argument to the benefit of the prior experience arguing that "industry experience may often be a liability" (1998). The thing is, it is rather common for entrepreneurs with prior experience to suffer from biases and blinders, especially previously exited founders from "success syndrome" and founder hubris, resulting in unjustified risk taking and jeopardy.

Yet, most of this data focuses on prior entrepreneurial experience. That leaves out another form of crucial experience: domain expertise and high-stakes operational roles in fast-moving environments.

The rise of "founder-market fit" reflects this reality. Having lived and breathed a specific industry can be as impactful as having started a company before. Working in hyper-growth startups teaches how to identify product-market fit, manage scale, and anticipate bottlenecks—lessons often missed in traditional business roles.

Consider these examples:

• Glean, founded in 2019 by ex-Google employees, raised over $260M and reached a $4.6B valuation. Its success stems from deep technical and product knowledge applied to enterprise AI search.

  
  

• Mysten Labs, valued around $2B, was launched by ex-Facebook and Apple engineers. Its Web3 infrastructure emerged from lessons learned at the cutting edge of Meta’s blockchain efforts.

  
  

• Bird, co-founded by ex-Uber and Lift executive Travis VanderZanden, rapidly became a leader in the micromobility space. The company leveraged operational know-how from Uber to scale quickly and went public via SPAC in 2021 at a $2.3 billion valuation at the time. 

  
  

These companies underscore that working inside high-growth organizations offers founders an accelerated masterclass in startup dynamics and execution.

The Wildcard: Why Entrepreneurial Talent Is Still Underrated

Talent is a fuzzy word. Hard to define, harder to measure—yet undeniably important.

Eesley and Roberts define entrepreneurial talent as the ability to consistently recognize opportunities and act on them effectively to generate higher performance. In unfamiliar markets or novel product categories, this innate talent may outweigh experience.

When the roadmap doesn’t exist, what matters is vision, adaptability, curiosity—traits that rarely show up on a resumé.

Over the past few years, I’ve worked inside startup incubators and accelerators where talent identification was everything. When I created STRIVE, a program designed to train professionals to become entrepreneurs, I had to choose participants carefully. Resources were tight, and the success of the program depended on selecting individuals with real entrepreneurial potential—not just impressive backgrounds.

The challenge: results are delayed. Some graduates launch startups within weeks; others take years. Picking the right people in this uncertain landscape feels like playing chess against an unpredictable opponent.

To guide my process, I studied top programs like Entrepreneur First and Antler, both of which prioritize people over ideas. I spoke with their team members and learned how they structure two-stage interviews: one to assess skills and track record, and another to test passion, vision, and cognitive agility.

But all of this only works if candidates answer honestly. To eliminate fluff, I made the STRIVE selection process more aggressive.

After a light-touch application reviewing credentials, I scheduled 20-minute interviews designed to surface deeper traits. The catch? Candidates were instructed to answer questions without overthinking, keeping answers short and unfiltered.

Why? A 2018 behavioral science study (Capraro et al.) found that people under time pressure are more likely to respond honestly. When there's no time to craft an image, authenticity shines through.

These "blitz interviews" became my favorite part of STRIVE. The questions were designed to feel abstract, even absurd. But the insights they revealed were profound.

Here are the 8 dimensions of entrepreneurial talent I identified and tested:

1. Self-Awareness & Emotional Intelligence

Founders who know their emotional triggers and limits tend to lead with more clarity and resilience.

• What makes you really angry?

• What is one thing you will never do again?

  
  

2. Personal Values, Priorities & Lifestyle Choices

These questions offer insight into long-term motivation and alignment with entrepreneurial demands.

• Do you like surprises?

• What’s the phone app you use most?

  
  

3. Responsibility, Coachability & Work Attitude

These help surface grit and tolerance for discomfort—critical in chaotic early-stage environments.

• How long does it take you to get ready in the morning?

• I say “you suck at your job.” What is your response?

  
  

4. Cognitive Agility & Problem-Solving

Startups require fast thinking and creative approaches. These questions test strategic reflexes.

• What’s a problem you’ve noticed lately that nobody seems to be solving?

• Would you rather solve a hard problem alone or get help from someone more knowledgeable that you don’t trust?

  
  

5. Comfort with Ambiguity & Risk

These questions explore how well someone takes action in uncertain or high-pressure contexts.

• You get a cryptic email saying “Act fast, this is your one shot.” What do you do?

• Would you invest your last $1,000 into your idea or save it for rent?

  
  

6. Learning Mindset & Resilience

The best founders learn from failure and unconventional sources. These prompts test for that.

• What’s something you failed at but are proud of?

• What’s a skill you learned in a really unconventional way?

  
  

7. Originality & Creative Confidence

Great ideas often sound strange at first. These questions look for independent thinking.

• What’s a weird idea you've had that you still kind of believe in?

• If you had a warning label, what would yours say?

  
  

8. Influence, Empathy & Leadership

Strong leaders build loyalty and trust. These questions show how someone relates to others.

• Who’s the most underestimated person you know?

• You can hire one person—do you pick someone smarter than you or someone you trust more?

  
  

These interviews weren’t just about answers—they were about reactions. Some candidates hesitated. Some deflected. But a few lit up, leaned in, and played the game. Those were the ones to watch.

This May marks three years since the first STRIVE interviews. Of our original 35 participants, 12 have already founded companies—across fintech, healthtech, and creator tools. And we’re still counting.

The startup world often celebrates outcomes, but real impact begins with founder selection. In a sea of pitch decks, resumes, and polished portfolios, talent often hides in plain sight—unconventional, raw, and fast-thinking.

If experience is the map, then talent is the compass. You need both—but it’s often the latter that points us somewhere entirely new.